What Happens to Pokémon Card Prices After a Set Comes Out
The cheapest Cardmarket listing of the chase cards we followed from release week, one week, one month and three months later: how far prices moved, set by set.
Data refreshed weekly · page generated on 2026-10-27.
3 months after Pitch Black came out, its chase cards asked a median −50.8% against release week.
The cheapest English listing, Near Mint or better, of every card we followed from release week, against its price that week. Asking prices, not sales.
Set by set
Median change of the cheapest price, from release week.
| Set | Cards followed | 1 week | 2 weeks | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black (English) | 18 | −12.4% | −25.1% | −29.1% | −44.1% | −50.8% |
| Pitch Black (French) | 18 | −17.4% | −19.5% | −28.8% | −38% | −50% |
| Chaos Rising (English) | 9 | −12.5% | — | −23.5% | −34.7% | −43.4% |
| Chaos Rising (French) | 9 | −14.7% | — | −19% | −34.8% | −43.1% |
A dash: the set is not old enough yet, or fewer than 5 cards had a price recorded at that point.
How many cards went down
For Pitch Black, English listings, the share of cards cheaper than at release:
- after 1 week: 83% of 18 cards
- after 2 weeks: 83% of 18 cards
- after 1 month: 100% of 18 cards
- after 2 months: 100% of 18 cards
- after 3 months: 100% of 18 cards
What these numbers don't say
- They cover the chase cards (Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Mega Hyper Rare) we followed from release week: few cards per set, and no commons.
- They are asking prices on Cardmarket, not sale prices.
- We describe what happened without giving causes: we measure neither print runs nor demand.
The last thirty days' moves, across every set, are in our monthly price guide.
Frequently asked questions
Do Pokémon card prices drop after release?
On the sets we have followed since release, yes. 3 months after Pitch Black came out, the cheapest English listing of its 18 tracked chase cards was a median −50.8% from its release-week price, and 100% of those cards were cheaper than at release.
Should I buy a card on release day or wait?
On the sets measured here, waiting cost less for most of the tracked chase cards. That is what happened on these sets, not a rule: a card can also rise, and we measure asking prices, not sales.
Method and limits
- For each card: its English or French floor (Near Mint or better, recorded per language) in the first four days after release, against the recording closest to each point, within three days.
- Sets released within the last year and at least a week ago; a point needs at least 5 cards.
- Recomputed weekly: recent sets join as they age.